近40年西乌珠穆沁旗牧草气候生产力变化特征分析

Nearly 40 years west wuzhumuqin herbage climate productivity variation characteristics analysis

本文通过整理西乌珠穆沁旗近40年年均气温及年均降水量变化,利用Thorntn waite Menorial模型计算出该旗近40年的牧草气候生产力(FPCP)数据,并通过sas软件处理得出温度、降水与牧草气候生产力之间的回归模型。通过回归模型分析牧草气候生产力的变化特征、趋势,并分析气候因子对它的影响程度。分析结果表明:(1)近40年该旗年均气温增温趋势明显,增温率为0.41℃/10a。对牧草气候生产力的影响为2.3%。降水变化幅度比较大从2.31mm到240.79mm,对牧草气候生产力的影响为从0.37%到38.1%。降水是影响牧草气候生产力的关键因子;降水变化对FPCP的影响大于温度变化对FPCP的影响。(2)近40年西乌珠穆沁旗牧草气候生产力平均值为5660.13kg/hm2,前25年呈波浪形变化,出现增长趋势,后15年出现下降趋势,总体上与降水变化吻合。

in this paper herbage climate productivity in west wuzhumuqin county is computed by the Thorntn waite Menorial model with the statistical data of average annual temperature and average annual precipitation in recent 40 years. The regression model between the temperature and the herbage climate productivity and the regression model between the precipitation and herbage climate productivity was calculated by SAS program, these two factors influence on herbage climate productivity was analyzed. The results showed that： （1） in recent 40 years, the county average annual temperatures warming trend obviously, warming rate is 0.41 ℃ / 10 a. The influence of temperature on the herbage climate productivity by 2.3%. Precipitation change is more significant, An average annual rainfall increased from 2.31 mm to 240.79 mm, precipitation the influence on herbage climate productivity from 0.37 % to 38.1 %. Rainfall is the key factor of herbage climate productivity; For the influence of herbage climate productivity, precipitation has a greater effect than the temperature. （2） in recent 40 years, the herbage climate productivity average of 5660.13 kg/hm^2 in the west WuZhu mu qin county,In the first 25 years, it present a growth trend, it declined in the next 15 years. On the whole, herbage climate productivity average change is simi- lar to the precipitation change.