基于参数敏感性分析的弓形虫病传播动力学模型简化

Study on influence factors of Toxoplasmosis transmission based on its transmission dynamic model

为了进一步分析弓形虫病的传播动力学机制,针对已建立的包含了弓形虫完整生命周期和主要传播途径的基于个体模型,运用拉丁超立方体抽样方法对该模型系统中的影响参数进行分析研究,得到不同因素对弓形虫病在农场系统传播的影响程度,从而找到了在不同研究侧重点下,影响该病传播的核心因素,剔除影响不大的因素,最终对原有模型实现了简化。

To analyze the mechanism of Toxoplasmosis transmission dynamics,an agent-based model,which involves the main transmission routes of Toxoplasma gondii and a complete life cycle,was used to describe the spread of Toxoplasma gondii in a farm system.Based on this model,we use Latin Hypercube sampling method to analyze the correlation between different influence factors and the transmission of Toxoplasmosis in farm system.According to these results,the model can be further simplified and adopted to analyze disease propagation mechanisms of Toxoplasma gondii.