基于灰色理论的装甲车辆铅酸蓄电池失效预测研究

Research on Fault Prediction of Armored Vehicles Lead-Acid Battery Based on Grey Model

针对装甲车辆铅酸蓄电池的失效预测问题，本文分析了灰色理论的基本概念、灰色序列的生成、灰色系统建模和GM（1，1）灰色预测方法。针对原始蓄电池容量数据的随机性和非等时距性，通过引入经典拉格朗日（Lagrange）插值法对其原始数据进行预处理，扩展了GM（1，1）模型适用范围。通过实验证明了本文所使用的方法能够成功应用到装甲车辆铅酸蓄电池的失效预测中，为判断蓄电池是否存在隐患提供了依据。

Focusing on how to predict ：the fault of armored vehicles lead-acid battery, the basic concept ot grey theory, the generation of grey sequence, grey system modeling and GM（1,1） prediction method were analyzed in detail. Aimed at the randomness and none time interval of original battery capacity data, the Lagrange＇s interpolation was introduced to preprocess it as to extend the applicable scope of GM（1,1） model. At last, a prediction test on armored vehicles lead-acid battery capacity is implemented. The result showed that the prediction method presented in this paper were valid and provided the basis for determining whether there are hidden dangers in battery.