基于气候变化的非洲橘硬蓟马分布区预测与分析

Distribution Forecast and Analysis of Scirtothrips aurantii Based on Climate Change

非洲橘硬蓟马(Scirtothrips aurantii)是柑橘等植物的重要检疫性害虫。为明确该虫在我国的可能适生范围及检疫重要性,为制定防止其传入和扩散蔓延的预防措施提供理论依据,利用普利斯顿大学开发的最大熵生态位模型(MaxEnt)软件分析并预测非洲橘硬蓟马在全球及我国的适生区。结果表明:非洲南部、南美洲中东部、墨西哥中部、澳大利亚东海南、印度南部、东南亚中部和西亚的也门是非洲橘硬蓟马在全球的主要适生区;该虫在我国的高度适生区为海南大部和云南中部,中度风险区为贵州大部、广西大部、广东大部、福建东南沿海和四川西南部。2050年,温室气体A1b(能源需求平衡)排放情景下,非洲橘硬蓟马的分布面积呈缩减趋势;A2a(能源需求高)和B2a(能源需求低)排放情景下,该虫在全球及我国的高度和中度风险区面积均呈增加趋势,特别在B2a情景下,高风险区的面积增加显著。结论:非洲橘硬蓟马有入侵我国的风险,应加强对该虫的检疫工作,实行严格的风险管理。

S.aurantii is an important pest of citrus and object of cosmopolitan plants quarantine.In order to explore the possible scope and significance of quarantine, and provide theoretical basis for controlling the invasion and proliferation of S.aurantii,the potential distribution of S.aurantii in the world and China were predicted by using MaxEnt model,which is developed at Princeton University. Results：South of Africa,Mid-east of south America,mid of Mexico,east coast of Australia,south of India,mid of Southeast Asia and Yemen are the main suitable areas for S.aurantii in the world.In China the high risk areas are in Hainan and the mid of Yunnan,the mid risk areas are in Guizhou,Guangxi, Guangdong,southeastern of Fujian and south of Sichuan.With greenhouse gases under the A1b emissions scenario,by 2050, the areas of S.aurantii tend to decrease,while under A2a and B2a emissions scenarios,the high and medium risk areas tend to expand,especially under B2a the high risk areas will expand significantly.S.aurantii may be intruded in China in the future,so consequently strong quarantine program and strict risk management is needed to prevent the pest from being introduced to China.