低生育率时代的经济发展:结构、效率与人力资本投资

Economic Growth in the Era of Low Fertility:Structure,Efficiency and Human Capital Investment

人口变量给中国经济发展带来的挑战主要体现为,快速的人口转变使得中国在迅速获取人口红利之后,在中等收入阶段就需要应对老龄化的挑战,中国的人口红利期也因此较之其他经济体更短。告别二元经济时期要素积累为主的经济增长方式,通过结构调整,提升经济效率已经成为未来推动经济增长唯一的手段。灵活的要素市场、积极反应的企业和训练有素的劳动者是结构调整尤其重要的三个支柱性领域。同时,还应通过积极有效的人力资本投资和人力资本的队列效应,缓解老龄化带来的挑战。

The changing demographic situation has brought a challenge to the Chinese economy.While it has benefited from the so-called demographic dividend,the fast changes in the demographic situation have prompted it to face the challenge of an aging society even before it becomes a high-income economy.Therefore,China has benefited less from the demographic dividend as it has last for a shorter period of time in the country.It has been China' s only option in the future to achieve sustainable economic growth by shaking off the economic pattern centered on accumulation of production factors in the dual-economy era and raise economic growth efficiency through restructuring.A flexible production factor market,enterprises that respond to market changes in a timely manner and well-trained workers and professionals are the three major factors that determine the success of economic restructuring.Meanwhile,pro-active and effective policies that promote investment in human capital should be devised to cope with the challenge brought by population aging.