论宏观经济智能预测系统中的综合集成技术应用

Study on the Application of Meta-synthesis in Macroeconomic Intelligent Forecasting System

社会经济系统是一类开放的复杂巨系统。宏观经济预测研究是社会经济研究的一个重要方面,解决这类复杂问题的一条可行思路是采取定性定量综合集成的研究方法。本文以地区宏观经济预测和规划为实际背景,提出了一个宏观经济智能预测系统的概念模型,给出了组成框架,同时分析了综合集成方法在构建宏观经济智能预测系统中的应用。

Social economic systems are a class of complex systems. Macroeconomic forecasting plays a prominent role in social economic research and decision-making, but it is very difficult to make accurate forecasting. An alternative approach is meta-synthesis. Directed at regional medium and long-term macroeconomic forecasting and planning, this paper presents a conceptual framework of macroeconomic intelligent forecasting system based on previous studies, and analyzes the application of meta-synthesis in building the forecasting system.