2008年金融危机后中国货币数量论失效研究

The Breakdown of the Quantity Theory of Money in China after 2008 Financial Crises

2008年金融危机之后中国货币数量论的失效表现出新特点,高货币投放的宽松货币政策不仅没有引起应有的通货膨胀,而且与房价上涨和政府债务扩张表现出紧密联系。本文构建了一个含有房地产部门和地方政府债务的动态一般均衡模型,以研究中国货币数量论失效的形成机理以及货币数量论恢复有效对宏观经济的影响。研究发现,房地产泡沫的膨胀和地方政府债务的扩张会增强家庭和政府的货币持有意愿,使货币流通速度下降并导致通货膨胀率相对降低。这表明房地产泡沫和地方政府债务是导致金融危机之后中国货币数量论失效的重要因素。同时,模拟实验表明,房地产泡沫的破裂将使货币数量论恢复有效,并推动通货膨胀率上升约0.5个百分点。

After 2008 Financial Crises, the breakdown of the Quantity Theory of Money in China displays a new feature that expansionary monetary policy with high money supply has not caused inflation it is supposed to be, while it goes with the soaring housing price and government deficit. This paper builds up a dynamic general equilibrium model in the presence of housing sector and government deficit. It shows that the booming of housing bubble and government deficit will enhance money demand of households and government and then lower velocity of money as well as inflation rate. This indicates that housing bubble and government deficit are the key factors in the breakdown of the Quantity Theory of Money in China after the Financial Crises. Moreover, the busting of housing bubble will make the QTM revival and increase inflation rate by 0.5 percents.