环境规制对我国碳减排的作用效果和路径研究——基于脉冲响应函数的分析

The Effects and Path of Environmental Regulation on Chinese Carbon Emissions——Based on the Analysis of Impulse Response Function

引入LMDI因素分解方法和VAR模型分析了环境规制对我国碳减排的作用效果和路径。结果表明:短期内环境规制对我国碳排放增量和经济总量效应具有抑制作用,对我国能源强度效应具有增强作用;长期内,环境规制能降低能源强度效应,对碳排放增量作用效果减弱直至消失。最后,提出了针对性的对策与建议。

The LMDI decomposition method and VAR model are used in this paper to verify the effects and path of environmental regulation on Chinese carbon emissions. Results show that in a short term,environmental regulation suppresses the carbon emission growth and total economic output effect,but it promotes the energy intensity effect. In the long run,environmental regulation reduces energy intensity and its effect on total economic output effect will be weakened until it disappears. At last,it raises the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.