门槛效应、经济增长与碳排放

Threshold Effect,Economic Growth and Carbon Emission

依据＂碳排放库兹涅茨曲线＂假说,二氧化碳排放量随着经济的增长将呈现出非线性变化。基于Hansen发展的门槛面板模型,利用2000~2011年我国省际面板数据样本,对经济增长与碳排放之间的非线性关系及其形成机制进行了实证研究,结果表明：经济增长与碳排放之间呈现出显著的非线性关系;产业结构、技术水平和能源消费结构在经济增长与碳排放关系中表现出显著的门槛效应,当这些门槛变量达到或超出一定的门槛值时,经济增长与碳排放之间的关系会发生显著的变化。

According to Hypothesis of Carbon emission Kuznets curve（ CKC）,with economic growth,carbon emissions will show nonlinear changes. In this paper,using panel threshold model proposed by Hansen（ 1999）,and the panel data of Chinese provincial level from 2000 to 2011,to analysis the nonlinear relationship and the mechanism of its formation between economic growth and carbon emissions. Results show that： between economic growth and carbon emissions,showing a significant nonlinear relationship; the industrial structure,technological level and energy consumption structure have threshold effect on the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions,when the threshold variable beyond a certain threshold,the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions will change dramatically.