基于房价收入比的中国城市住宅不动产泡沫测度研究

An Empirical Study on Chinese Residential Real Estate Bubble Based on the Housing Price-to-income Ratio

基于永久性收入理论,引入家庭可支配预期收入增长率,构建了家庭对房产的可支付模型,推导出房价收入比的动态泡沫临界值区间,利用2002~2013年数据对中国36个城市不动产市场价格泡沫进行实证研究。分析得出以下结论：本地居民可支配收入增长率对房价收入比泡沫临界值具有重要影响,并呈正相关,实证分析表明中国城市动态临界值区间是6.33~11.62,城市住宅不动产市场呈结构性泡沫;城市住宅不动产市场价格泡沫存在由东部向中西部、一线城市向二、三线城市间的传导,2012年开始,部分二、三线城市出现去泡沫化现象。

Based on the theory of permanent income theory,this paper first invents the concept of dynamic housing price-toincome ratio,then constructs the model of the critical value interval of dynamic housing price-to-income ratio,and finally does empirical study on the residential real estate price bubbles by using annual data from the 36 cities. The results show household disposable income growth has great influence on real estate bubbles,the critical value interval of dynamic housing price-to-income ratio is 6. 33 to 11. 62,a structural real estate bubble exists in China. There exists conductivity on urban price bubbles of residential real estate from east to middle and west china,from first-tier cities to lower-tier cities. There exists off-bubble phenomenon on chinese residential real estate since the implementation of property-market tightening policy from 2012.