垂直专业化、分工地位与贸易的福利效应——基于跨国面板数据的实证研究

Vertical Specialization, Division Status and the Welfare Effect of Trade:An Empirical Study Based on Cross-national Panel Data

文章利用1995—2011年39个国家的跨国面板数据，基于综合福利视角实证考察垂直专业化的福利效应及其在不同分工地位国家之间的差异。检验结果表明，从平均意义讲垂直专业化分工的综合福利效应比传统贸易更为明显，同时这一效应会受到分工地位的显著影响，贸易的收益与代价在发达国家与发展中国家间的分配是不公平的，并且存在“门槛效应”。但相对于传统贸易这一“门槛”已显著降低，更多发展中国家可以通过参与垂直专业化分工提升本国福利水平。

This paper makes an empirical study of the welfare effect of vertical specialization and its differences between nations of different labor division by using the panel data of 39 countries from 1995 to 2011 from the perspective of comprehensive welfare. The results show that vertical specialization has a larger positive effect on welfare than that of traditional trade, and the welfare effect is significantly related to the division status, that is, the allocation of the gain and cost of trade between developed and developing countries is unfair. There exists a threshold, but it is much lower than that of traditional trade, which means that more developing countries can improve their welfare by vertical specialization.