摘要
通过对目前业务运行欧洲中心下发的台风集合预报的7种产品作介绍,分析了每种产品的特征和适用情况,发现集合预报产品的强度数值经常与实际强度有明显偏差,但其对趋势的反映仍具有很好的参考意义。从国家气象中心、上海中心气象台的研究结果来看,用设计方案来挑选"最优"成员的方法可以进一步减小预报误差。
With an account of seven products issued by the ECMWF currently in operation, this paper analyzes the characteristics and application of each of them and discovers significant discrepancies between the ensemble forecast products and the observation in terms of intensity values, though the former can be used as good means of guidance as indicators of trends. It is known from the research results at the National Meteorological Center and Shanghai Meteorological Observatory that forecast errors can be reduced further by designing schemes to select optimal members.
出处
《广东气象》
2015年第1期4-9,共6页
Guangdong Meteorology
基金
广东省气象局科技创新团队(201101)资助
