粤俄贸易海洋运输主通道识别与未来影响分析

Ocean Transportation Main Channel Identification of Trade Between Guangdong and Russian and Future Impact Analysis

近10年来,粤俄贸易增长迅猛,年平均增长率达20%。海洋运输是粤俄间重要的货运方式,文章对粤俄贸易额与俄方港口货物吞吐量的相关性进行了分析,得出东方港、圣彼得堡港口是俄罗斯与广东省贸易海洋运输的主通道。对东方港和圣彼得堡港口货物吞吐量和粤俄贸易进出口总额进行预测,研究表明:东方港的目前设计吞吐能力将不能满足未来运量增长,对未来粤俄贸易的海洋运输造成不利的影响,从而影响粤俄贸易量的增长。

Over the past decade, the rapid growth of trade between Guangdong and Russia, the average annual growth rate is 20%. Marine transportation is an important freight between Guangdong and Russian, the paper make correlations analysis with trade between Guangdong and Russian and the Russian port cargo throughput. Results show that： Vostochny,St. Petersburg port is the main channel maritime transport of trade between Russia and Guangdong. Prediction about Orient Harbor and St. Petersburg port cargo throughput and total import and export trade between Guangdong and Russia, studies show that： the current design of the east port handling capacity will not meet future traffic growth, that will make a significant impact on the future of the marine transportation trade between Guangdong and Russia.