我国木薯种植的发展及未来总产预测与市场需求趋势

Developing Future Output Forecast and Market Demand Trend of Manihot esculentain China

为我国木薯产业的健康发展提供参考,基于FAO统计数据,采用统计分析方法对我国木薯种植面积、总产和单产及其变动特征进行分析,利用时间序列模型对我国未来木薯总产进行预测,研究了我国木薯产品的市场需求趋势。结果表明:从20世纪60年代以来,我国木薯种植面积、总产和单产分别以年均2.13%、2.66%和0.53%的增长率增加,是同期世界年均增长率的1.5、1.07和0.5倍;我国木薯发展经历了急升→急降→缓升→急降→缓升的过程。至2020年我国木薯总产将达到550.3万t左右,比2012年增长20.3%。2012年我国木薯总产仅有实际需求量的40%,到2015年不足预测需求量的1/3,国内木薯的市场价格易受国际市场的影响,对国际市场的依存度较高。提出了系列的政策建议。

The cultivated area,total output and per unit yield of M.esculenta and their changes were analyzed by statistical analysis technique based on FAO statistic data,then the future M.esculenta output is forecasted by the time sequence model,and finally the market demand trend is discussed to provide a reference for health development of M.esculenta industry in China.The results showed that since 1960s, the cultivated area,total output and per unit yield of Manihot esculenta in China have been grown at an average annual growth rate of 2.13%,2.66% and 0.53% respectively,1.5 times,1.07 times and 0.5 times the average annual growth rate in the world separately.The M.esculenta;development undergoes the rapid rise→rapid drop→slow rise→rapid drop→slow rise process.Total M.esculenta output will reach 5.503 million tons in China,20.3% more than in 2012.Total M.esculenta output in China in 2012 was 40% of actual demand and the forecasted M.esculenta output in 2015 will be below a third of forecasted demand.The domestic market price of M.esculenta is affected by international market and depends on international market mainly.A series of countermeasures for development of M.esculenta industry are proposed at the same time.