区域物流与区域经济的互动关系研究——以海南省为例

Study on Interactive Relationship between Regional Logistics and Regional Economy: In the Case of Hainan

对1978-2012年35年的海南省区域物流、区域经济相关数据进行了平稳性检验、格兰杰因果分析,建立了VAR模型,并进行了脉冲响应分析及方差分解分析。得到结论:海南省区域物流与区域经济发展相互影响,其中区域物流中货运周转量与物流业产值对区域经济的发展影响较大,但是区域物流发展落后于区域经济发展;同时,区域经济的快速发展对区域物流有较大的促进作用。据此,对海南省发展区域物流提出建设性意见。

In this paper, we had a stability test and Granger causality analysis of the data relating to the regional logistics and regional economy of Hainan for the 35 years between 1978 and 2012, built the corresponding VAR model, and performed a pulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis, and concluded that the regional logistics and regional economy of Hainan were mutually influencing,according to which we proposed several constructive opinions for the development of the regional logistics in Hainan.