基于组合预测的快速消费品需求预测

Demand Forecasting of Fast Consuming Products Based on Combination Forecasting

结合快速消费品行业消费特点,利用组合预测的方法构建预测模型,对产品短期需求量进行预测分析。以卷烟需求为实例,利用Matlab编程计算预测结果,然后对组合预测结果与各单一方法预测结果的误差进行分析比较,结果显示,组合预测误差相对较小,表明选用的预测方法可为快速消费品生产企业库存管理提供决策支持。

In this paper, in connection with the consumption characteristics of the fast consuming product industry, we established a combination forecasting model to forecast and analyze the short-term demand volume of such products, then in the case of the cigarette industry, used the Matlab program to calculate the forecasting result, and at the end compared the result from the combination forecasting with that of other single forecasting processes.