中国出口商品结构变化的重新测算

Re-measurement of Change in China's Export Structure

本文利用有序样本聚类分析的最优分割法对出口商品进行分类,克服已有分类方法的不足,构建全新的出口商品结构分析框架,对2000-2010年期间中国出口商品结构的变化进行了测算。研究结果表明:目前中等技术产品是中国第一大出口商品,高技术产品在中国出口中所占份额较低,一直维持在5%左右的份额,中国高技术商品的出口发展并没有取得突破性进展;在世界市场上,中国占世界低技术商品出口总额的比例日益提高,且具有一定的垄断地位;中国占世界中低技术、中等技术商品出口总额的比例也比较高;中国占世界中高技术特别是高技术商品出口总额的比例较低,与发达国家的差距很大,且有日益拉大的趋势。

Based on the sophistication index, this framework with optimum partitioning clustering method China＇s export structure and the contrast between China suits show that between the years 2000 and 2010, the paper constructs a new to analyze the change in and 15 countries. The reshare of middle-technology manufactured goods still was the biggest in China＇s export, and the share of high-technology manufactured goods still was very small. In the world market, the share of China＇s low-technology export in the world＇s total low-technology export increased. The share of China＇s high-technology export in the world＇s to- tal high-technology export is very small and the share gap between China and the developed countries is increasing.