融资约束与中国出口增长的二元边际

Financial Constrain and Dual Margin of China's Export Growth

中国出口增长具有以集约边际为主的固化特征。为解释这一原因,本文认为金融市场化改革的相对滞后,给低效率的老产品出口企业提供了外部融资保护,有利于出口增长的集约边际扩张。随着老产品出口企业的国际市场地位逐渐巩固,具有融资约束的潜在出口企业由于缺乏外部融资机会以支付进入国际市场的贸易成本,被迫放弃或减少出口计划,导致中国出口增长的扩展边际不足。进一步使用HS-6位码的贸易数据进行实证检验后,本文发现融资约束确实具有促进集约边际扩张、不利于扩展边际增长的作用。然而,经济规模、贸易成本、人民币升值、区域经济一体化、外部冲击、语言的相通性、政治体制等因素影响中国出口贸易结构二元边际调整的机制不完全相同,说明我国实现出口增长向扩展边际为主的调整难度依然较大。

China＇s export growth has a fixed characteristic featuring the intensive margin. To explain this, this paper holds that the relative lagging behind of the financial marketing reform contributes to a financing shield of the old export companies with low efficiency, which is in favor of the intensive marginal expan- sion of export. As the old export companies consolidate their positions in the in- ternational market, the export companies with financial constrain have to give up or reduce their export, leading to the insufficient extensive margin of China＇s ex- port growth. Using China＇s HS-6 trade data, the paper finds that the financial constrain do help expand the intensive margin, while they go against the growth in the extensive margin. In addition, the paper also finds that there are different effects on China＇s export structure by the economic size, trade costs, RMB appre- ciation, regional economic integration, external shocks, industrial competitiveness and political discrimination, which increases the difficulty in the policy-making for adjusting the export growth of new products.