中国贸易隐含碳排放与责任分担:产业链视角下实例测算

Research on China's CO2Emissions Embodied in Trading and Responsibility Sharing: An Example Measurement from Perspective of Industrial Chain

本文改进投入产出(IO)模型推导行业部门生产、消费、出口、进口和净出口不同统计口径的隐含CO2计算公式,利用能源实物消耗量及排放系数直接测算行业部门碳排放量,然后计算分析我国29个行业部门贸易平衡条件下贸易隐含碳,再以行业产出增加值为指标确定产业链上下游行业的碳排放责任分配比例,构建国际贸易碳排放共担责任分配模型,测算代表性行业CO2排放在生产者和消费者共担责任原则下可能结果。研究结果证实我国2007年出口和净出口隐含CO2排放量占比都较大,金属冶炼及压延加工业、交通运输仓储和邮政业、化学工业三个行业在共担责任原则下有约30%责任应该由国外消费者承担。本文最后提出建议:中国等发展中国家应加强合作,倡导建立新的CO2排放责任分担原则及具体测算指标体系;中国需要转变对外经济发展方式,实现"绿色"贸易发展模式。

This paper improves the IO model to deduce different diameter calculating formula of embodied CO2 emissions including production, consumption, import, export and net export of 29 industrial sectors, and uses the physical energy consumption and CO： emission coefficient to measure directly the industries＇ emissions and analyze CO2 emissions embodied in trading under the condition of trade balance. Then this paper determines the proportion of the emission responsibilities of the upstream and downstream industries in the industrial chain with industrial added value as indica- tors to build the emission responsibility distribution model and calculate the responsi- bility sharing result of the representative industries under the principle of production and consumption sharing principle. The result shows that the proportion of China＇s ex- port and net export embodied COs emissions both are big in 2007, and under the prin- ciple of sharing responsibility, 30% of the responsibility of three industries, namely, the metal smelting and rolling processing industry, the transportation warehousing and the postal service and the chemical industry should be borne by the foreign consum- ers. Finally, this paper puts forward suggestions that the developing countries such as China should strengthen cooperation, set up a new responsibility sharing principle and a concrete measuring index system, and China needs to change its pattern in the foreign economic development to realize the ＂green＂ trade development mode.