摘要
2014年是中国棉花行业政策发生重大调整的一年,临储政策退出,目标价格政策试行,棉花价格重回市场定价,棉价大幅下滑,至年末与进口棉价格基本持平。2014年棉花播种面积同比下降2.9%,产量下降2.2%,进口量进一步缩减,临储政策造成库存创历史新高。展望2015年,受植棉效益下降影响,棉花播种面积将进一步下滑,下游需求不振难以支撑棉价上行,进口配额收紧限制进口棉数量,去库存化以及政策调整将是影响2015年棉花市场走势的不确定因素。
China＇s cotton industry experienced huge policy adjustment in 2014. The exit of the temporary purchase and storage policy and the try out of the target price policy led cotton price to returning to the market price and falling sharply. At the end of 2014, the domestic cotton price was basically flat with the price of imported cotton. The sown area fell 2.9% year on year, the production fell 2.2% year on year, the import volume experienced further reduction and the temporary purchase and storage policy caused inventory to hit a history record. Looking forward to 2015, influenced by the reduction of cotton planting benefit, the sown area will further decrease, the weak demand of downstream can＇t support the rise of cotton price, the tightening up of the import quota will limite the import quantity. De-stocking and the policy adjustment are the uncertain factors that will influence the cotton market behavior in 2015.
出处
《农业展望》
2015年第2期9-12,共4页
Agricultural Outlook
