流动性冲击的度量及其结构性分析——来自中国的数据与经验

Measurement and the Structural Analysis of Currency Liquidity Shocks:Data and Experience from China

本文主要基于中国经济发展过程中的数据与经验,采用协整理论、HP滤波方法,度量货币流动性冲击的具体程度,据此判断货币流动性冲击的类型、状态转换时点,确定冲击的持续时间跨度,从而实现对不同时段货币流动性冲击特征的比较分析,得出规律性研究结论。再与样本期中国经济实际运行情况进行比较后,发现上述研究过程较好的度量和解释了中国货币流动性的动态特征及其变化规律,从而证明了本文所提供的研究方法、分析框架是可信、有效的,能够为中国货币流动性调控提供有针对性的研究工具。

This article is background on Chinese data and experience. In the use of co-integration theory, HP filter method, to measure the specific impact of currency liquidity shocks, to judge the type of monetary liquidity shocks and time point of state transitions. So it can determine the impact of time span and comparative analysis the different periods of currency liquidity shocks feature. Finally it can find conclusions regularity. Then comparing the actual situation of the Chinese economy with conclusions regularity, we found the research process and the frame of measure can explain the dynamic regulation of Chinese currency liquidity shocks. Thus this paper proving one kind of analytical method and research tools it can effectively measures the Chinese currency liquidity shocks.