基于行为的企业突发事件演化动力学模型及仿真

Modelling and Simulation of Enterprise Emergency Evolution Dynamics Based on Behavior Perspective

鉴于企业突发事件演化是多因素交互作用的结果,重点从企业应急行为和公众行为反应视角出发分析了事件演化的驱动因素及其作用机理,进而建立了包含事件初始特征、企业应急行为适宜性、经营系统健康度和公众过激行为反应强度等模块在内的交互耦合系统动力学模型,并采用Vensim PLE进行了模拟仿真。仿真结果表明:企业风险意识、应急准备水平、响应速度、企业信任指数、公众舆论指数和企业利益相关者过激行为强度等变量与企业突发事件影响力存在较强的交互关系,并能够对后者产生重要影响。

Enterprise emergency evolution is the interactive result of many factors. Mainly focusing on the perspective of enterprise emergent behavior and public behavior reaction,this paper analyzes the driving factors and mechanism of the evolution of emergency,and establishes an interactive coupling system dynamics model that incorporates initial characteristics of event,suitability of emergency behavior in enterprises,operating system health and reaction intensity of public aggressive behavior. Using Vensim PLE simulation,the results show that： variables such as enterprise risk aw areness,counter-emergency preparation levels,response speed,business trust index,public opinion index and intensity of enterprise stakeholders＇ aggressive behavior have a strong interactive relationship with the enterprise emergencies influence,and can produce an important influence on the latter.