基于Bayesian网络与复杂网络理论的特/超高压输电线路状态评估模型

A Condition Assessment Model of EHV/UHV Transmission Line Based on Bayesian Network and Complex Network Theory

为有效衡量特高压输电线路外部工作条件和所在系统内部运行状态对线路状态评估的影响,采用Bayesian网络定量分析了输电线路在各种外部条件下的故障概率;结合复杂网络理论分析方法,引入系统几何量参数量化线路重要程度的差异;借鉴风险评估思想,提出了基于Bayesian网络与复杂网络理论的输电线路综合状态评估模型。仿真计算结果表明,所提模型对电网中运行风险高且系统地位重要的线路具有较好的辨识能力。与基于线路外部条件信息的状态评估方法相比,该模型增加了系统内部运行信息,提高了线路实时重要性的辨识能力,且计算速度快,符合实际工程需要。

To effectively evaluate the impacts of external working condition and internal operating state on condition assessment for ultra-high voltage transmission lines, we quantitatively analyzed the fault probability of transmission line caused by various external factors using the Bayesian network. Using the complex network theory, we quantified the difference in importance of transmission lines by systemic geometrical parameters. Finally, on the basis of the idea of risk assessment, we proposed an integrated state evaluation model of transmission line based on the Bayesian network and the complex network theory. Further simulations prove that the proposed model performs well in recognizing the important transmission lines with high failure probability in power system. Compared with the condition assessment based on external condition information, the proposed model takes the internal operation information into consideration, hence it has better ability of real-time importance identification with higher calculation speed, which fulfills the demands of practical engineering.