海上交通安全监管水域风险判断模型

Risk Judgment Model of Maritime Traffic Safety Supervision Waters

根据海上交通安全监管水域风险特点,采用海上交通运输、险情和事故典型指标制定风险因素指标体系;以死亡失踪人数、直接经济损失和船舶溢油重量为门限指标,建立水域风险程度判断标准;采用单因素分析和多因素综合方法,对水域风险程度进行判断,针对海洋经济活动影响因素制定风险程度调整系数;通过案例分析对研究成果进行了验证.

According to the maritime traffic safety supervision waters risk characteristic,the waters risk indexes system is established including the typical marine transportation,danger and accident indexes.Based on the threshold indexes including missing and death number,direct economic loss and the shipping oil spill weight,the marine waters risk judgment standard is built.The marine waters risk is judged with the single factor analysis and multiple factors comprehensive method.And the risk adjustment coefficients are presented according to the marine economy activity factors.Finally,the study achievements are verified through the example.