河北省地方政府信用风险与市政债券安全发行规模

Credit Risk and Safe Issue Volume of Municipal Bonds for Local Government in Hebei Province

地方政府在发行市政债券的过程中存在信用风险.文章首先借用KMV模型的思想,建立了地方政府信用风险的度量模型.然后,以河北省为例,计算了不同发债规模下地方政府的违约概率及其债券的安全发行规模.计算结果表明,随着债券发行规模的扩大,地方政府的信用风险呈加速上升趋势,债券规模达到一定程度时,地方政府的违约概率表现出极强的灵敏度;河北省地方政府市政债券安全发行规模的上限应不超过其年度财政收入的10%.

For local government,there exists credit risk during the process of issuing municipal bonds.In this paper,a credit risk measurement model for local government is firstly constructed based on the ideas of the KMV（Kealhofer,McQuown and Vasicek）model.Then,as an example,the default probability of the local government and the safe issue volume of the bonds are calculated under the different issue volume with the relevant data of Hebei province.As a result,the conclutions indicate that there is an accelerated trend towards credit risk of local government with the expansion of bond issue volume,when it expands to a certain extent,the default probability of local government shows a strong sensitivity.Otherwise,the conclutions also annouce that,in Hebei province,the upper bound of the safe issue volume for,the municipal bonds should not exceed 10 percent of its annual revenue.