我国自然灾害公众责任险定价与财政分担研究

Pricing and Financial Sharing for Natural Disaster Liability Insurance

基于1980-2014年中国自然灾害人身伤亡数据,对年度自然灾害风险损失进行分布拟合;采用VaR方法计算全国统筹背景下自然灾害公众责任险保费规模;依据自然灾害危险度和易损度测算地区保费规模,探讨保险责任扩展家财保障的可行性;界定各级财政用于购买自然灾害公众责任险资金分担责任;从定价及财政安排两方面为自然灾害公众责任险的全国推广提供切实可行的实施方案,并为国家政策支持提出建议。

Using the data of personal injury and death caused by natural disasters during 1980 - 2014 ,the paper fitted the distribution of natural disaster losses. Then, through stochastic simulations, it calculated the scale of natural disaster liability insurance premiums using the VaR method. According to indicators of natural disaster＇ s danger de- gree and loss degree, it further calculated the insurance premiums in different risk areas, discussed the feasibility of extending the insurance liability coverage to property damages, and defined the funding sharing among different fis- cal levels for purchasing the insurance. Finally, the paper suggested a nationwide rolling-up plan for natural disaster liability insurance, taking into consideration its pricing, fiscal supports, and relevant policy supports.