洪水风险下的我国洪水保险定价研究

China's Pricing of Flood Insurance at Flood Risk

基于我国洪水保险逆向选择严重、缺乏单项洪水保险产品的事实,以住宅洪水保险为研究对象,采用VaR方法计算住宅洪水保险的保费规模;从洪灾危险度、洪灾易损度以及风险防御能力三个维度评价洪水风险,测算各风险地区人均保费;将人均保费与居民支付意愿及浙江政策性农房保险进行比较研究。研究表明:风险区划对保费规模影响明显,测算保费与居民支付意愿存在差距,政府需对住宅洪水保险提供财政支持;对房屋因灾倒塌设置赔偿限额能有效控制风险,提高住宅洪水保险覆盖率。

Based on the fact that our flood insurance market has a serious adverse selection problem and lack of special insurance products,residential flood insurance has been chosen as a target key;VaR method is used to calculate the insurance fee scale of residential flood insurance;the flood risk is evaluated from danger degree,flood vulnerability degree and risk prevention ability and the insurance fee per capital in each risk area is calculated;the insurance premium per capital,willingness to pay and policy rural housing insurance in Zhejiang Province are compared and studied.The research shows that price varies greatly due to different risk areas and confidence and there is a gap between insurance fee calculated and willingness to pay,the government should provide financial supports for residential flood insurance;it can effectively control the risk and improve the residential flood insurance coverage by setting the indemnity limit for house collapse due to disaster.