我国区域农业全要素生产率的演变趋势与影响因素——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

Evolution Trend and Internal Mechanism of Regional Total Factor Productivity in Chinese Agriculture

利用DEA-Malmquist指数法分析1992-2012年我国31个省份农业TFP的演变趋势及影响因素。研究显示,我国农业TFP的年均增长率为3.1%,对第一产业GDP年均增长率的贡献度为79.210%;技术进步是引致我国及各省份农业TFP变动的主要因素,东部、中部和西部的农业TFP依次下降,1993年以来各省份的农业TFP不存在σ收敛;人力资本含量、灌溉面积占比、工资性收入占比和农业财政支出占比对农业TFP有正面影响,而农业产值占比、粮食播种面积占比具有约束作用,这些因素的趋势性变化引致了区域农业TFP的发散格局。

This paper uses DEA-Malmquist Index Approach to analyze agricultural TFP of China＇s 31 provinces from 1992 to 2012. The results show that. annual growth rate of Chinese agricultural TFP is 3.1%, which contributes to the annual growth rate of primary industry＇s GDP is 79. 210%. Technological progress is the main factor causing agricultural TFP of the country and all provinces. Agricultural TFP decrease followed the sequence of eastern region, central region and western region, agricultural TFP of provinces does not exist o-convergence since 1993; Human capital, the proportion of irrigated area, the pro- portion of wages income and the proportion of agricultural finance expenditure have positive effects on agricultural TFP, while the proportion of agricultural production and the propor- tion of grain sown area have restriction effect, the variation of these influencing factors lead to a divergence pattern of regional agricultural TFP.