农产品批发市场财政扶持真的具有政策效果吗?——基于供销系统490家市场数据的得分匹配分析

Effect of Public Financial Support for Agricultural Product Wholesale Market:A Propensity Score Matching Analysis Based on the 490 Market Data in the Cooperative System

根据供销系统490家农产品批发市场的调查数据,本文利用多元回归模型分析了市场财政扶持在扩大交易规模、带动就业和带动农户发展方面的政策效果,并采用倾向得分匹配方法讨论了来自样本自选择偏误的内生性问题对评价结果的影响。多元回归分析结果显示财政扶持对农产品批发市场交易规模提升和带动就业人数具有显著促进作用,但对带动农户数的影响不显著。在利用倾向得分匹配方法控制了内生性问题的偏误后,财政扶持对农产品批发市场交易额、带动就业人数和带动农户数的影响均不显著,说明忽略内生性问题会导致对财政扶持政策效果的高估。

Based on the investigation data of 490 markets in the cooperative system, the effects on transaction scale, employment and farmer development of public financial support for agricultural product wholesale market are analyzed by multiple regression models, and the causal inference bias related to sample self selection is discussed by using propensity score matching method. The regression result show that the public financial support has significant effects on the transaction scale and the employment of the wholesale market, but if the causal inference bias related to sample self selection is controlled,these effects will not become significant, which means the effects of public financial support will be overevaluated by the ordinary regression model.