考虑到隐性感染人群的潜伏期和发病期均传染的SLICAR模型

An Epidemic Model Named SLICAR for Transmission of Disease with Asymptomatic Infection and Infective Latent Period

目的提出一种包含隐性感染者并且含潜伏期均传染的流行病模型。方法基于已有的SEIR模型,加入隐性感染者分箱得到SLICAR模型,并以2009年春季的甲型H1N1和1918年秋季的Spanish流感数据为实例分析。结果H1N1流感数据模型拟合的基本繁殖数R0值为2.174(决定系数R2=0.802)以及Spanish数据疫情17天拟合R0值为2.636和疫情结束时拟合值为3.675。结论 SLICAR模型考虑到了隐性感染者以及潜伏期患者的传染性,为基本繁殖数R0的估计提供了一种较为全面的算法;也为疫情防控提供了更为全面的信息。

Objective To provide a model including latent and onset periods of infectiousness in asymptomatic patients. Methods SLICAR model was constructed by combining asymptomatic patients and SEIR model. We analyzed and checked the model using pandemic influenza A （H1N1） and Spanish flu data. Results The basic reproduction number （R0） of H1N1 was 2. 174（coefficient of determination R^2 = 0. 802）. 2. 636 and 3, 675 represented 17-days and entire-epidemic R0, respectively. Conclusion SLICAR model takes consideration of the infectious of asymptomatic patients in latent and onset periods. It is a comprehensive way for evaluating R0 ,thus abundant information is available for taking measures.