中国城乡金融非均衡发展的度量与预测

A Study of Measurement and Prediction of Unbalanced Development of Finance in Urban and Rural Areas in China

从城乡金融存贷款额、城乡金融资产、城乡金融化水平等三方面对1978—2012年间我国城乡金融非均衡化现象进行全面测度,并运用灰色预测模型对未来我国城乡金融发展水平进行预测及检验,结果显示:从城乡金融发展的视角来看,我国金融发展仍然处于非均衡状态;在政策等环境不变的前提下,我国城乡金融发展绝对差异水平将继续扩大,但相对差异水平在逐渐缩小。

This paper makes a comprehensive measurement on the phenomenon of unbalanced development of finance in urban and rural areas from 1978 to 2012 from such three aspects as financial deposit loan,financial assets,and financial development level between urban and rural areas. And the Grey Prediction model is used to test and predict the level of financial development in urban and rural areas in the future. The result shows that,from the perspective of urban and rural financial development,the financial development in our country is still in a non-equilibrium state; in the climate in which policy has been left unchanged,the absolute difference of financial development between urban and rural areas will continue to expand,while the relative difference is gradually shrinking.