高储蓄与高房价:因果关系的再审视

High Savings and High Housing Prices: A Re-examination of Causality

我国大陆的高储蓄与高房价是两个令人关注的经济现象。一些学者认为高房价导致了居民的预防性储蓄,从而推高了中国大陆的储蓄率,这种观点既违背了传统的财富效应,也与国际经验相悖。基于2000年至2012年资金流量表的相关数据研究发现,居民储蓄的变动只能解释我国总储蓄上升的35%。进一步利用我国大陆35个城市的面板数据分别建立静态、动态、空间面板、面板联立方程模型,实证检验房价与居民储蓄之间的关系后发现,房价的上升会提升居民储蓄的说法无法得到实证检验的支持。

High savings and high housing prices are two economic phenomena for which people show a great deal of concern in China. Some scholars believe that high housing prices lead to household＇s precautionary savings,thereby pushing up the savings rate. This viewpoint is not only contrary to the traditional wealth effect,but also inconsistent with international experience. Based on the data of funds flow table from 2000 to 2011,we find that changes in household savings can only explain35% of increase of total savings. Furthermore,by use of the panel data of 35 cities,we establish the static,dynamic,spatial panel,panel simutaneous equation models repectively,and make an empirical test on the relationship between house prices and household savings and discover that the increase of housing prices can＇t explain the change of household savings rate.