江西省高温逼熟灾害特征分析

Characteristic Analysis of High-Temperature Forced Maturity Disaster in Jiangxi Province

利用江西79个气象站1961—2013年气象资料,分析了53年间江西高温逼熟灾害时空分布特征及变化情况。结果表明:江西53年间有92%的年份出现了不同范围的高温逼熟灾害,逐年灾害站数的线性变化趋势不明显,但1992—2013年间呈明显增多的趋势;从年代来看,灾害站数在20世纪60—90年代呈"高-低-高-低"的波动趋势,在2001—2013年大幅上升,年均发生站数达60.2站;灾害站数具有6—8年的年际变化特征和24年左右的年代际变化特征;赣北、赣中轻度灾害发生的高频时段为7月1—10日,赣南为6月23日—7月10日,全省重度灾害高频时段为7月10日—20日;2001—2013年,各地的灾害频率表现出高频区域明显扩大、低频区域缩小的特征,武宁、德兴灾害频率由1次/10年上升到7.7次/10年。

Based on the meteorological data during the period of 1961- 2013 from 79 weather stations inJiangxi, the characteristics of high-temperature forced maturity disaster in Jiangxi province were analyzed. Theresults showed that, the disaster occurred on distinct extend in 92% years during the 53 years. The linear trendof the number of disaster stations was not significant in the whole 53 years, while it advanced significantly from1992-2013. For different decades, the disaster station number showed＂high-low-high-low＂change trendfrom 1960 s to 1990 s, which was increased greatly during 2001-2013, the annually station number up to 60.2.The disaster station number had variations in inter-annual scale with 6-8 a, and in inter-decade scale with24 a period. The high frequency period of the light disaster were 1-10 thJuly in Northern and central Jiangxi,and were 23 th June to 10 thJuly in Southern Jiangxi. The high frequency area of disaster expended obviouslyand the low frequency area shrunk obviously during 2001-2013, and the disaster frequency increased from1 time/10 a to 7.7 time/10 a.