中国耕地征收的省际差异与失地农民测算研究

Interprovincial Variations of Farmland Expropriation in China and the Estimation of Lost-Land Farmers

城镇化进程所导致的耕地数量剧减和失地农民增加,是当前阶段下中国所面临的一个重要经济社会问题。为探究中国耕地征收的空间差异及其所导致的失地农民群体分布差异,基于省级尺度研究了2005年、2008年和2011年中国耕地征收的省际差异,并在分析各省耕地资源分布差异的基础上,于省级尺度下更精细地测算全国失地农民数量和揭示年新增失地农民分布的省际差异。探讨了影响失地农民规模估算结果的其他因素,包括更精细的尺度上推、违法征地和农村超生人口所导致的低估。针对中国耕地征收和失地农民的空间差异现状,提出应对山东、浙江、福建,以及河南、四川和湖南等经济发达或快速发展诸省区的征地规模进行重点管控的建议。

With the unprecedented urbanization in China, the rapid loss of farmland and the increasing ofconsequent lost-land farmers are among the key social-economic problems facing us. To investigate the spatialvariations of farmland expropriation as well as the consequent lost-land farmers in China, given the availabledata, this paper studied their interprovincial variations in 2005, 2008 and 2011. Our findings revealed that theestimation of lost-land farmers＇ quantity was more accurate at the provincial scale than at the country scale,with the later underestimating by 10 to 20 percentages. Furthermore, other factors that affect the estimation oflost-land farmers＇ quantity including the scaling-up at finer scales, illegal farmland expropriation and non-registered rural population were discussed. We proposed a stricter control of the farmer land expropriationactivities in some developed provinces like Shandong, Zhejiang and Fujian as well as a few rapid developingprovinces like Henan, Sichuan and Hunan.