基于EKC的水资源利用与经济增长关系研究

Research on the Relationship between Water Resources Utilization and Economic Growth Based on EKC

基于环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC),采用中国31个省市区2005-2012年水资源利用量和经济增长相关指标的平衡面板数据,通过模型验证水资源利用量EKC在中国是否存在。分析得出:1人均用水总量和人均农业用水量EKC不存在;2人均工业用水量EKC存在,转折点为23 615.34元,且人均GDP可以作为人均工业用水量的预测指标;3人均生活用水量EKC并不存在。因此,在促进经济增长的同时,要注重水资源利用量与经济增长的内在关系,降低EKC转折点,以缩减用水量。

On the basis of Environmental Kuznets Curve（EKC）hypothesis,the authors collected China＇s balanced panel data of water resources utilization per capita and economic growth indexes form 2004-2012,and examined the existence of EKC of water resources utilization by econometric model,then analysed the relationship quantitatively between the water resources utilization and economic growth.According to the model validation and discussion,here are some conclusions：1 The results of EKC model examinations showed that the relationship between total water resources utilization per capita and GDP per capita didn＇t follow an inverted-U curve,and also examined the inexistence between the agricultural water use per capita and GDP per capita;2 This paper also found an EKC in the inspection of water use per capita for industrial sector,turning point is RMB23,615.34,and the GDP per capita could be a good indicator of the water withdrawals per capita for industrial use;3 This paper didn＇t found an EKC of the water use per capita for domestic water in China.Therefore,the development of economy based on the internal relation between water resources utilization economical growth must be paid more attention,which will be helpful to the reduction of the turning point and water resources utilization.