地震活动性总体参量R_t在华北构造区地震带中的应用

A study on the application of integrated parameter Rt of seismic belts in North China tectonic region

考虑到华北构造区主要地震带对首都圈地区的重要影响,采用地震活动性总体状态参量Rt方法,分析跟踪地震带的地震活动状态,研究Rt值在中强地震前后随时间的变化特征。结果显示:当Rt大于阈值时,地震活动状态比较稳定,发生中强地震的可能性较小;反之,当Rt小于阈值时,地震活动处于不稳定状态,具有发生中强地震的危险。

Considering the important role of seismic belts of North China tectonic zone to the Capital Circle Region, based on an integrated parameter Rt of seismicity to routine analysis and tracking the state of seismic activity of seismic belts in North China tectonic zone, and the variation characteristics of Rt with time has been studied. The result indicates that： when Rt greater than the threshold, the state of seismic activity is stable, the probability of strong earthquakes is lower; otherwise, when Rt less than the threshold, the seismic state is unstable and the probability of strong earthquakes is higher. Finally, the efficiency of earthquake prediction by use of Rt parameter has been also estimated.