城市保障房建设规模与住宅价格的关系研究——基于VAR模型

Researches on Relationship between Affordable Housing Construction Scale and Commodity Housing Prices: Based on VAR Model

通过建立向量自回归模型定量分析2003年-2013年的季度数据,对保障房建设规模与房价之间的关系进行研究,得出结论：住宅价格上涨,保障房规模有先扩大后缩小的趋势,其后维持在一定水平发挥应有的保障功能;增大保障房建设规模会对房价产生持续向下的正向冲击,对房价上涨能起到一定的缓解作用,但并不能作为抑制房价上涨的手段,而且其适度规模取决于住房市场的供求关系。

Quarterly data of year 2003 to year 2013 are analyzed by the VAR model,the relationship between indemnificatory housing construction scale and commodity housing prices are studied. It was pointed out that： With the rise of house prices,the indemnificatory housing scale will enlarge at first,then reduce to a certain level to play its safeguard function; Increase the scale of the indemnificatory housing construction will have a continuing downward positive impact on housing prices,alleviate its stagflation,but can not be used to curb the rising prices,and its moderate scale depends on the housing market＇s supply and demand.