HBV水文模型在玉树巴塘河流域洪水临界雨量阈值研究中的应用

Application of HBV Model to the Study on Risk Precipitation in Different Grades in Batang River Region

区域气象灾害的评估在防灾减灾中具有很重要的地位,它不仅是认识灾情、进行灾害区划、实行灾害预测、制定防治对策、进行损失评估、实施防治措施和进行项目管理的基础,对政府的辅助决策都具有重要意义。基于玉树县社会经济统计资料、水文资料、巴塘河洪水灾情资料的基础上,应用HBV模型尝试性的研究暴雨诱发的中小河流洪水临界风险雨量阈值研究,结果表明:1)近11a来新寨站平均流量23.2m3/s,2001年、2003年、2005年汛期流量较大,2006—2011年流量明显偏少;2)在率定期HBV模型对新寨站日径流深模拟的确定性系数达0.678 2,Nash效率系数为0.604 4,验证期确定性系数超过了0.770,Nash效率系数为0.530 5;3)根据不同的基础水位,有效划分了24h玉树巴塘河流域洪水面雨量预警指标,为今后玉树县巴塘河流域提高灾害防御能力提供研究基础。

The trend of extreme climate events has been analyzed by many researchers. Once it occurs, it maybe cause serious influence, so it becomes more and more important to research meteorology disaster, which can not only help us know disaster, conduct disaster forecast and loss assessment, but also help government to solve the problems. The module of runoff was simulated using a hydrological model（HBV） based on meteorological data, land use, hydrological data and Dem of Batang river region. The results of simulated runoff depth were verified. The results showed that. 1） the average runoff is 23.2 m3/s in recent 11 years in Xinzhai station, the runoff volumes in flood season in 2001,2003 and 2005 were greater, but the runoff volumes became less from 2006 to 2011,2） the coefficients of determination and NASH were 0. 678 2, 0. 604 4, respectively, in the calibrated period, and were 0. 770 and 0. 530 5, respectively, in the verification period~ 3） the warning critical rainfalls triggering runoff at different water levels were calculated using HBV model in order to reduce losses resulting from the flooding disasters.