基于灰色关联的盐城市城市建设用地碳排放协调发展研究

Research for Coordinative Development About Carbon Emission from Construction Land in Yancheng City Based on Grey Correlation Method

随着新型工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化深入推进发展,城市建设用地开发利用呈现出膨胀式的扩展,特别是在"高消耗、高排放、高污染"的城市发展模式下,不仅造成碳排放量快速增长,而且造成城市土地的"碳汇"功能减弱,致使气候变暖、人居环境日益恶化。论文以灰色关联度为研究手段对盐城市2002—2012年的城市建设用地及各分项用地的碳排放进行评价,并采用系统之间的耦合协调度公式测度了各分项用地之间协调发展等级。结果表明:盐城市城市土地利用各构成要素之间存在着不同于简单因果关系的非线性联系,即具有相关性、非均匀性、不可逆性等特征;盐城市2003—2012年城市建设用地各分项用地的协调发展程度呈逐年下降趋势,而且系统间存在着严重的不平衡性。盐城市在城市建设用地的发展过程中,用地之间的矛盾越来越突出,在各分项用地协调发展等级研究中,各系统间发展差异也较大。总体为优良等级,优质协调、良好协调占总评价的50%左右。其中工业—交通用地协调发展较好,这也为其他系统间的协调发展提供决策参考依据。

Land use change is an important factor on carbon emission. With the new-type urbanization, indus- trialization, informatization and agricultural modernization process accelerating, there appears the fast expan- sion in urban construction land use and development, especially in the urban development pattern of high consumption, high emission and high pollution, which resulted not only in the rapid growth of social carbon emissions, but also in the weakening of carbon sinks function of urban land, leading to the global warming, and the deterioration of the living environment. Therefore,the low-carbon use of urban construction land will be the new hot spot of the study in the fields of the urban science and environmental science. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the characteristics of changes in urban construction land use in Yancheng City from 2002 to 2012, calculate and analyze the carbon emissions influenced by different urban construction land use types from 2002 to 2012 according to the assessment model of carbon emission and grey relationship method, describe the coordinative degrees of different urban construction land use types in Yancheng City from 2002 to 2012, keep the harmonious relationship between human beings and environment, and reach the goal of sustainable development of society. The results show that the transportation land and industrial land accoun- ted for a major proportion of the total carbon emission from urban construction land use types in Yancheng City from 2002 to 2012. Carbon emissions increased most quickly in the residential land and the commercial service land city, from 5. 607X 10s tons in 2002 to 1. 471 3× 106 tons with an average annual growth rate of