不确定环境下网络渠道开通最优时机选择

Optimal timing for introducing the internet-enabled channel in an uncertain environment

在运营成本的随机变化服从几何布朗运动以及网络渠道的开通会产生不可逆投资沉没成本的条件下,采用实物期权方法分别建立渠道集成策略和渠道更新策略下公司的价值函数,分析运营成本的不确定性对网络渠道开通时机选择的影响.研究表明:公司运营集成的双渠道情形下传统渠道和网络渠道的最优定价策略与运营单一传统渠道、单一网络渠道相同;延迟开通网络渠道的等待价值随运营成本漂移率以及瞬时波动率的增大而增大,但是却随着无风险利率的增大而减小;当运营成本瞬时波动率的平方小于漂移率的两倍时,开通网络渠道的期望等待时间将会受到无风险利率、运营成本漂移率以及瞬时波动率的影响,其他情形下期望等待时间则不受影响.研究结论可为不确定环境下公司网络渠道开通时机选择提供理论支持与实践指导.

Considering the uncertain operating cost and the irreversible investment sunk cost of introducing the internet-enabled channel, this paper derives the introducing threshold and the option value of waiting by constructing the value function for a company which adopted the channel integration strategy or the channel update strategy by means of the real options approach, respectively. The results show that the optimal pricing strategy of the traditional channel and the internet-enabled channel for a company which is operating an integrated dual channel is the same as that of a single traditional channel and a single internet-enabled channel. The option value of waiting to delay introducing the internet-enabled channel increases when the mean drift rate increases or the uncertainty rate increases, while decreases when the risk-free interest rate increases. If the square of the uncertainty rate is less than twice the mean drift rate, the expected waiting time is affected by the risk-free interest rate, the mean drift rate and the uncertainty rate. However, under other conditions the expected waiting time is free of these three factors. The findings of this paper can provide theoretical support and practical guidance for companies to decide whether to introduce the internet-enabled channel or not, and when to introduce the internet-enabled channel in an uncertain environment.