基于云模型的突发事件分级模型研究

The Classification of Emergency Events Based on Cloud Model

针对突发事件具有模糊性、随机性等特点，将云模型理论引入到突发事件分级研究中，提出一种基于云模型的突发事件分级模型，较好地解决了分级过程中存在的模糊性、随机性等问题，并为突发事件分级的定性概念和定量表示之间架起了一座桥梁。同时，本文提出的分级模型综合考虑了突发事件的各种复杂因素，适用于突发事件事前预警、事中和事后评判，为突发事件应急管理中分级级别的确定提供了一种科学而有效的方法。

According to the emergency characteristics,such as fuzziness,randomness,and little information,a new emergency classification model based on cloud model is proposed in this paper,which solved the fuzziness,randomness problem during classification process and setup a transformation bridge between emergency classification qualitative concept and quantitative denotation. Meanwhile,this classification model involves al kinds of complex factors of emergency,which is suitable to pre- alarm,ex post evaluation. The classification model is a effective and reasonable method for emergency managZmZnt.