“小市经历效应”:重要地级市市委书记职务晋升的逻辑

Minor City Experience Effect:A Mechanism of the Promotion of Chinese Major Cities' Party Secretaries

通过访谈确定各省的"大市"和"小市"的划分,采用1993-2012年间13个省份重要地级市市委书记的详细信息以及城市经济增长的数据,系统考察了这些市委书记在不那么重要的地级市的任职经历是否以及如何影响其职务晋升。本文建立一个简要的省委领导效用模型,把影响晋升因素分为"能力"和"关系"两部分,研究重要地级市市委书记职务晋升的逻辑,研究发现,这些市委书记的"小市经历"总体上对获得更好的晋升有促进作用,不受官员政治联系和政绩表现的影响;"能力"与"关系"都是职务调动的重要影响因素,但"小市经历"比政绩更能体现市委书记的能力。

This paper builds a simple model that characterizes the utility of provincial leaders with two factors of＂capability＂and＂connections＂,classifies Chinese cities into＂major＂and＂minor＂ones through interviews and employs a data set of 39 major and minor Chinese cities in 13 provinces about the characteristics of party secretaries and city economic growth over 1993-2013. We find that party secretaries＇ ＂minor city experience＂has a strong and significantly positive effect on their promotion,and the significance is never undermined by their economic performance in the cities and their political connections. Furthermore, capability and connections are both crucial factors of promotion,and the minor city experience has a larger impact than economic performance.