基于广义灰色模型的内蒙古能源消费预测

The Energy Consumption Forecast of Inner Mongolia Based on the Generalized Grey Model

在定性分析内蒙古地区能源组成结构基础上,选取该地区1995-2012年能源统计数据建立广义灰色关联及预测模型。结果显示,内蒙古地区煤炭与总能源的生产、消费关联程度远远高于石油、天然气、水电核电及其他能源发电三种能源,煤炭在提升能源生产及消费总量中起主导作用。运用灰色预测模型G M(1,n)预测1995-2012年内蒙地区能源消费总量与煤炭消费量,检验结果表明能源消费总量预测模型与煤炭消费量预测模型精度很高。运用该模型预测2020年内蒙古地区能源消费总量将达到61006万吨标准煤、煤炭消费量将达到34977万吨标准煤。建议:积极转变能源工业发展模式,调整能源消费结构,提升清洁能源消费比例;大力发展循环经济;淘汰落后产能,积极调整产业结构。

On the basis of qualitative analysis of energy structure of Inner Mongolia, using the energy statistics between 1995 and 2012, generalized grey correlation and prediction model is established. The results show that in Inner Mongolia, the correlation of production and consumption between coal and total energy is far better than that of oil, natural gas, hydroelectricity and nuclear electricity, and other energy generation; of which the coal is the predominant role in increasing the total energy production and consumption. Through forecasting the total energy consumption and coal consumption between 1995 and 2012 in Inner Mongolia by using gray prediction method GM（1, N）, we gets the test results that the precision of prediction model with regard to total energy consumption and coal consumption is high. Furthermore, by using this model, this paper forecasts that total energy use in Inner Mongolia will reach 610.06 million tons of standard coal, and coal consumption will reach 349.77 million tons of standard coal by 2020. For this reason, this paper proposes that we must actively change the energy industry development model, adjust energy consumption structure, and promote clean energy consumption ratio. On the other side, we must work energetically to develop the circular economy, eliminate backward production capacity, and adjust the industrial structure positively.