资本流入激增会诱发突然中断吗？--基于新兴市场国家的实证研究

Can Previous Excessive Capital Inflow Induce Sudden Stop?An Empirical Analysis on Emerging Market Economies

随着金融全球化和国际资本的自由流动，新兴市场国家频繁经历国际资本流入的激增和突然中断，资本流动易变性增加使得经济周期的波动幅度被放大，造成一国经济不稳定。本文利用1990～2012年35个新兴市场国家总资本流动的数据，采用probit模型实证检验表明，资本流入激增对突然中断有直接影响，直接投资流入比较稳定，证券投资和其他投资的激增都会引起突然中断的发生。银行信贷过分扩张和资产价格泡沫扩大，进一步增加国内金融体系的脆弱性，导致突然中断发生概率的上升。这一发现对各国资本流动管理具有重要的政策含义。

With the development of financial globalization and capital liberalization, emerging market countries always experience excessive inflow and sudden stop of capital movements. The high volatility of capital inflow amplifies the fluctuation of business cycle and cause the instability of the macro - economy. This paper uses the probit model by the gross capital data of 35 emerging countries from 1990 -2012. The results indicate the pre- vious excessive capital inflow will induce sudden stop. FDI is more stable, but portfolio equity and other invest- ment are much more volatile. The credit boom and asset price bubble make the financial system more vulnerable and increase the probability of sudden stop. These findings have much implication for the government＇ s capital management.