我国财政极限的测算及影响因素分析——利用含体制转换的DSGE模型对全国及主要省份的研究

Measuring Fiscal Limit of Chinese Government:Empirical Analysis Based on Financial Revenue and Expenditure

本文构建了一个含体制转换的简单DSGE模型,将政府债务变化、财政政策预期与财政极限的讨论纳入到一个统一框架中。在不确定环境下,通过对未来财政盈余的贴现,得到一般均衡框架下政府可承受债务水平的极限。结合我国的实际债务状况,我们对全国及主要地方政府面临的财政极限进行了研究。研究得到:(1)当前我国政府广义负债率已超过55%,且无论在短期、中期还是长期内,政府财政收支都将面临较大潜在压力;(2)通过对全国及主要省份财政极限的模拟,在稳定的财政支出条件下,我国中央财政极限分布的期望值为0.87,各主要省份财政极限分布的期望水平均处于0.6至1.9的区间范围内;(3)不同省份间财政极限的差异主要源于区域经济发展、地方政府财政收支结构、中央与地方财政收支之间的关系以及宏观政策决策等因素。(4)财政收支政策的变化,可能引起政府债务水平升高,并改变人们对未来宏观政策的预期,从而造成宏观经济运行的不稳定。因此,应尽快形成财政政策规则,完善政府财政预算制度,有效锚定财政预期,以保证货币、财政及宏观审慎政策的调控效果。

This paper constructs a simple Markov - Switch DSGE model, which will include government debt, fiscal policy and fiscal limit. Under uncertain environment, we can measure the limit of government by discoun- ting the entire future fiscal surplus, under the framework of general equilibrium framework. Using actual debt data, we can estimate the fiscal limit of the central and local government. The result show that （ 1 ） the general government debt to GDP ratio has exceeded 55%. Both in the short -term, medium -term and long -term, the government revenue and expenditure will faced great potential pressure. （2）Through the model simulation of the fiscal limit, the fiscal limit of central government is the value of O. 87, with a stable fiscal expenditure as- sumptiorr And fiscal limits of the local government are in the range of 0. 6 to 1.9. （ 3 ） The difference of fiscal limit among provinces are mainly derived from the regional economic development, local government fiscal reve- nue and expenditure structure, macro policy factors. （4）Changes of fiscal policy may raise the level of govern- ment debt and then change the expectations for the future maeroeconomic policy, resuhing in macro economic instability. So fiscal policy rules should be formed as soon as possible, improving the fiscal budget constrain and anchoring fiscal expectations, to ensure the effect of monetary policy.