基于实物期权的页岩气勘探开发投资决策研究

Research on Investment Decision-making of Shale Gas Projects Based on Real Option

页岩气资源本身所具有的属性特征,使得其勘探开发存在着诸多不确定性,这给页岩气勘探开发项目投资带来很大的风险.在对页岩气勘探开发项目投资的特点及其期权特性分析基础之上,应用实物期权理论与方法,构建基于实物期权的页岩气勘探开发项目投资决策模型,并结合某油田公司进行算例分析.结果表明基于实物期权的投资决策方法弥补了传统净现值法的不足,能够有效提升页岩气勘探开发投资决策的科学性和有效性.

The uncertainties which incur many investment risks always exist in the process of exploration anddevelopment for the properties of shale gas resources. The real option model of shale gas exploration and developmentwas designed to decide whether or when to invest,based on the attributes of the projects and the options. And the modelwas applied to helping the oil company to make investment decision for shale gas exploration and development. Theresults show that the methods is effective and efficient for the shale gas investment projects which can be make upfor the deficiency of net present method.