河北省水资源短缺预测研究——基于离散二阶差分方法分析

The Forecast Research of Water Shortage in Hebei Based on the Discrete Difference Equation Prediction Model

水资源短缺现象在当前全球很多区域日益凸显.国内外在水资源短缺方面的研究也日渐增多.系统梳理了国内外近几年水资源短缺的研究成果,分解造成地区水资源短缺的主要因素;论述当前国际国内水资源预测的研究状况,讨论当前比较成熟的预测方法.在此基础上,详细列出离散二阶差分方法(DDEPM)的推导过程,采用DDEPM方法,以2000—2011年的河北人口与供水量数据为基础数据,对河北2020年的人口数值、水资源总量与用水量进行预测,随后计算出河北人均缺水量,发现河北人均水资源的占有量随着人口的不断增多而出现小幅降低,河北省的水资源短缺情况在未来一段时间内如果没有良好的解决方案,可能会更加严重.

The shortage of water in many parts of the world has become increasingly prominent in current.Research the shortage of water resources has also increased home and abroad. This paper reviews the researchresults at home and abroad in recent years,the shortage of water resources,the main factors that cause thedecomposition of regional water resources shortage;discusses the current state of research on water resources ofinternational and domestic prediction method,discuss the current relatively mature. Based on the discussion on theforecasting method of discrete,Discrete Difference Equation Prediction Model（DDEPM）down process,usingDDEPM method,with the population of Hebei and water quantity data of 2000 to 2011 based numerical data,population,water resources and water consumption forecast for Hebei in 2020,then calculates Hebei per capitawater shortage occupancy,found that Hebei＇s per capita water resources along with the population increase and aslight decrease,the shortage of water resources situation of Hebei Province in the next period of time if there is nogood solution,may be more serious.