基于EVA和现金流的财务危机预警模型研究

The Research on Financial Crisis Early Warning Model Based on EVA and Cash Flow

以上市公司中2013年31家被ST的公司和与之对应的31家非ST公司为研究的对象,利用公司的财务报表,采用Logistic回归方程建立财务预警模型,同时,为进一步增强预警模型的有效性,将前瞻性的EVA指标和真实反映企业财务状况的现金流量指标中同时引到财务危机预警模型的构建中.通过对模型的拟合优度及回代检测可以看出,加入EVA指标和现金流量指标的财务危机预警模型对危机的前瞻性和灵敏度要大于基于传统指标所建立的财务危机模型,因此引入EVA指标和现金流量指标对财务危机的预警具有很好的理论依据.

Forward-looking and sensitivity to EVA and the cash flow index is more and more recognized. Therefore,constructing a decisive role for the long-term development of the company set of joining EVA and cash flows of thefinancial crisis early warning model is of great significance. The listing corporation financial normal firms andfinancial crisis companies as a sample,selected 31 ST companies and 31 non ST companies,a total of 62 companiesselected modeling samples. Through the test,it is concluded that EVA and cash flow indexes play a tremendous rolein model construction,and the crisis sensitivity and predictive ability of EVA and cash flow indicators are betterthan the traditional index. The establishment of a financial crisis early warning system is of great significance for thedevelopment of the company.