基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的河南省农村劳动力预测

The Rural Labor Prediction of Henan Province Based on GM(1,1) Model

基于河南省统计年鉴2006—2013年的数据,运用灰色预测理论,建立了河南省农村总人口以及农村劳动力的灰色预测模型.结果显示:在未来几年,河南省农村总人口及农村劳动力人口将有所减少,劳动力的比重呈现下降趋势,但是供应规模依然较大.

In this paper,based on the data of Henan statistical yearbook from 2006 to 2013,we established theHenan Province rural population and rural labor grey prediction model by using grey prediction theory. The resultsshowed that,in the next few years,the rural population and the rural labor of Henan Province will be reduced. Theproportion of the workforce show a downward trend,but the supply scale is still large.