藏北高原重点生态功能区发展态势及经济社会发展调控

Development Trend of the Northern Tibetan Plateau Main Ecological Function Regions and Its Economic and Social Regulatory Development

西藏高原自然环境独特性对经济社会发展有特殊要求,符合主体功能定位及方向是支撑国家生态安全战略的基础.以藏北高原重点生态功能区为例,采用情景分析法,基于"草畜平衡"与主体功能关系,由生态系统服务功能向生产生活层面,逐步分析减载增服、结构平衡、增加收入、人口迁移等4种情景.结果表明:120年来人口规模、城镇化率、工业化率和非农产值比例等指标不断提高,国土开发强度由0.142‰缓慢升至0.269‰,生态脆弱性等生态环境指标处于高位,主体功能属性判别值A在限制开发阈值内,产业与就业结构偏离度较高,其中一产由-0.31降至-0.69,牧区劳动力隐形失业严重.人口迁移处于净流入状态,重点生态功能核心区迁移活跃程度加大、边界扩大.2在草场负荷、人口规模由1648万与50.32万分别调至理论阈值1382万与38.12万、城镇化率由29.77%增至54.48%、一产产业与就业结构偏离度由-0.69升至均衡(0)条件下,预计2014—2020年间:减畜生态补偿资金需要1.83亿,一产比值由16.24%下降至7.76%,人口净迁出率由5.32%逐年增至34.93%,人均纯收入翻番过程中牧业比例由58.44%下降至19.56%,国土开发强度由0.269‰降至0.169‰.

The unique natural environment of Tibetan Plateau has special requirements for economic and socialdevelopment. A satisfying development with the main function is the foundation of the national ecological securitystrategy. Taking the Northern Tibetan Plateau main ecological function zones as an example,based on therelationship between the forage and animal balance and main function,we analyzed the following scenes,includingload shedding service increase,migration,structural balance and revenue increase,from ecosystem services functionto the manufacturing and living level with the help of scenario analysis. The results showed as follows. ①In therecent 20 years,the population size,urbanization level,industrialization level,the proportion of non-agriculturaloutput and other indicators have been increasing continually,and the land development intensity has slowlyincreased from 0.142 ‰ to 0.269 ‰,eco-environment index such as ecological vulnerability is very high,themain functional attributes discriminant ratio A is within the threshold of the development limit. The structuredeviates of industry and employment are high,and the primary industry is reduced from-0.31 to-0.69,whichmeans a huge invisible unemployment of the pastoral labor. The state of population migration is net immigration,and the activity of core areas of ecological function migration increased,borders expanded.②For the near futurefrom 2014 to 2020,it is expected that the pasture load and the population size of 16 480 000 and 503 200,respectively,would raise to 13.82 million and 381 200,which is the theoretical threshold. The urbanization ratewould increase from 29.77 percent to 54.48 percent,under this scenario. The demand of ecological compensationfund would be 183 000 000. The primary industry ratio would decrease from 16.24% to 7.76%,and the netemigration rate would increase from 5.32% to 34.93% annually. The proportion of animal husbandry per capita netincome during the doubling process would increase from 58.44% to 19.56%,and the land development intensitywould decrease from 0.269 ‰ to 0.169 ‰.